Many friends have given me grief for my sporadic blogging. For the past nine months, nothing in the world has been normal. A horrible economy, friends suffering and lack of normalcy are especially tough for me. I’m an optimist, and and analytical one.
So, why poke my head out now. Well there’s plenty of data which suggest that the economy, and hopefully society, are stabilizing. I studied economics and traded bonds out of school, so I watch interest rates (not normal either). In May, the TED spread moved back to the high-end of its normal range of 30 to 50 basis points. The TED spread acts as an analog for credit risk in the economy. Since the middle of 2007 it has behaved more like the Richter Scale for the economy, at 100 basis points we all feel the world shaking and 500 basis points is the equivalent of a 10 on the Richter – never seen before.